After an extended stretch of hot and dry weather, much-needed rainfall is expected to return to Harris County and Southeast Texas beginning this week, with rain chances increasing Thursday and continuing into the weekend.

A slow-moving storm system over the southwestern United States will move into Texas over the next several days, bringing increasing moisture into the region from both the Gulf and Pacific.

Some of that Pacific moisture is associated with Hurricane Polo, which has made landfall along the west coast of Mexico, and Tropical Storm Rachel off Mexico’s southwest coast. Moisture from these systems is expected to be pulled into Texas later this week.

What to Expect in Harris County

Scattered showers and thunderstorms could begin as early as Wednesday, with rain chances increasing later in the week.

The heaviest rainfall and greatest flash flood threat are currently expected to remain west of the Houston area, particularly across portions of Central Texas. However, Lindner notes that the forecast could change depending on how storms and boundaries develop across the state.

Current forecasts call for widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches across much of Southeast Texas, with higher totals of 3 to 4 inches possible mainly west of the Brazos River. These amounts could shift as the forecast becomes clearer.

While the rainfall will be welcome after recent dry conditions, the high amount of moisture in the atmosphere means stronger thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall over a short period of time. Under the current forecast, the primary local concern would be street flooding in areas that receive high rainfall rates.

Residents should continue monitoring the forecast as the week progresses, particularly as there remains uncertainty about where the heaviest rainfall will develop heading into the weekend.

Stay Weather Aware with the Flood Warning System

As rain chances increase, residents can use the Harris County Flood Warning System to monitor rainfall and water levels. Residents can also sign up for customized alerts to receive notifications when rainfall or water levels reach selected thresholds.

Weather insights provided by Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control District Meteorologist.