Featured Image Courtesy of NOAA

A tropical system in the western Gulf is becoming better organized and could develop into a hurricane as it moves across the Gulf later this week.

The system, currently designated Invest 92L, is expected to move slowly over the western Gulf before gradually turning east and then north. Current forecast guidance generally favors a track toward the central U.S. Gulf Coast, between southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, late this week or early this weekend.

While the system is not currently expected to make landfall along the Texas coast, Harris County residents should continue to monitor the forecast as the system develops.

Hurricane Development Possible

Conditions over the Gulf are generally favorable for development. Forecast models increasingly indicate that 92L could strengthen into a hurricane over the Gulf. Some guidance suggests significant strengthening could occur over the central Gulf, although increasing wind shear and drier air closer to the northern Gulf Coast could affect the system’s intensity before landfall.

The system is currently in an area with weak steering currents, which means its movement may remain slow over the next day or two. Forecast confidence should improve as the system becomes better organized.

What Could Harris County See?

The primary local concern at this time is increased water levels along the Texas coast.

Winds are expected to increase later this week, pushing water toward the coast. Tides could run about 1 to 2 feet above normal, with minor coastal flooding possible around times of high tide Thursday through Saturday.

If the system becomes stronger over the central Gulf, longer-period swells could also reach the Texas coast and push water levels higher than currently forecast.

At this time, significant rainfall or inland flooding impacts for Harris County are not indicated in the information available. Residents should continue monitoring the forecast because changes in the system’s track, intensity, or size could affect local conditions.

Stay Weather Aware

The Harris County Flood Control District will continue monitoring conditions across the region as the tropical system develops.

Residents can also use the Harris County Flood Warning System to monitor rainfall and water levels at gages across Harris County and sign up for customized alerts.