Based on the article written by Dr. Robert Mace, Executive Director, Meadows Center for Water and the Environment, originally published via Texas+Water on July 6, 2025.

Texas may have seen a dramatic turnaround in drought conditions this July, but the heavy rainfall that brought relief came with heartbreaking consequences. From July 3–5, a devastating weather system drenched Central Texas with more than 20 inches of rain in some locations. Fueled by a collision of multiple moisture sources, including an upper-level disturbance from West Texas and remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, the storm carved a path of destruction from San Angelo to Austin. Tragically, more than 80 lives were lost, including children at Camp Mystic along the Guadalupe River, with dozens still missing.

The result of this extreme rainfall? Widespread flash flooding and a temporary break in the long-running drought. Drought conditions (D1–D4) dropped from 39% of the state four weeks ago to 30%, and statewide reservoir storage increased from 78% to just above 80%. While that’s still about four percentage points below normal for this time of year, the increase is significant. Yet, as Dr. Mace noted, these gains feel “shameful” considering the human toll, and highlight just how unpredictable and unforgiving Texas weather systems can be.

A Pattern of Extremes

This is the 20th time a tropical system has dropped 15+ inches across interior Texas, suggesting a roughly 5.5-year recurrence for such events. Historical data from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows improvement across Texas, with exceptional drought levels decreasing from 14% to 6% and extreme drought from 22% to 13%. But the Rio Conchos basin in northern Mexico remains in dire condition, and Elephant Butte Reservoir near El Paso has dropped from 13% to just 6% full.

Neutral ENSO and the Outlook Ahead

Looking forward, El Niño and La Niña oscillations remain absent, with forecasters expecting neutral conditions through at least early 2026. Seasonal projections from NOAA suggest hotter-than-average temperatures and average precipitation, though recent rainfall clearly challenges those forecasts. As Dr. Mace puts it, this event is a sobering reminder of the urgent need for better forecasting, preparedness, and public response systems to mitigate future loss in the face of Texas’ powerful climate swings.

Sign up for more information about flood control in the Harris County area, and don’t forget to visit the Harris County Flood Control District website for additional resources such as the Harris County Flood Warning System.